Quote Originally Posted by textodd View Post
I agree somewhat. All of the P-5 contracts expire in 2023. So in essence the G-5 has 6 years to make it's case for both competitiveness and profitability. What I'm really saying is that I'm actually glad CUSA is going to have the full 6 years to figure it out.

I also think there's a slight possibility the top 20-30 programs may leave the NCAA altogether in football and form essentially another pro league. Eventually, the NCAA is going to have to step in and say something that keeps the sport competitive and retain it's amateur standing. When that happens, what's to stop those schools from acting in their own financial self-interest and bolting? I'm not sure that would be bad. A clear delineation between pro and amateur/college programs might be better in the long run. No more trying to impossibly keep up with the Joneses. Plus, not everyone wants to watch pro ball. There's an entertaining innocence to college football that is lost in the NFL. It's one of the reasons I prefer college football (and basketball for that matter) and I'm certain I'm not alone.

If that happens, how does that affect the distribution model?
I do expect a breakup of Division I FBS football to happen but not like what you described. The top 64 P5 teams will form 4 new conferences after they expel the weaker P5 programs. They will form a new NCAA division or force everyone else to form new lower divisions. I believe we will find ourselves playing Division I-AA and FCS becomes Division II.

In this scenario, I expect the top programs to continue to dominate the best deals and media coverage. Actually, I can't see any scenario where the top teams will never not dominate the media landscape. I also prefer college sports over pro sports (expect basket - GSG!) but not lower division sports. Have you seen a Trinity University football game? They are true amateurs but no one is paying to see a college team that would likely lose to many high school teams.